In a recent study by Allison DeLong, Mayla Hsu and Harriet Kotsoris, published April 24, 2019, findings show the cumulative prevalence of post-treatment Lyme disease (PTLD) in the United States is estimated to be high and predicted to increase.
In the study, the authors estimated the number of PTLD cases in the US in 2016 and 2020 using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques, publicly-available demographic datasets, uncertainty in the inputs, and realistic assumptions about incidence and treatment failure rates. They found, depending on the input assumptions, PTLD prevalence estimates for 2016 ranged from 69,011 persons (95% CI 51,796 to 89,312) to 1,523,869 (CI 1,268,634 to 1,809,416) and prevalence in 2020 is predicted to be higher than 2016, and may be as high as 1,944,189 (CI 1,619,988 to 2,304,147) cases. Their findings suggest that there are large numbers of patients living with LD-related chronic illness and the authors propose that these findings will be of interest to epidemiologists and health economists studying disease burden in the US and elsewhere, and justify funding to study PTLD diagnosis and treatment.
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